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Tuzla City vs Stupčanica Olovo — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stupčanica Olovo
Stupčanica Olovo
M. Karahmetovic 76'
F. Mehanovic 40' (pen)
9/13/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 4Stadion BARE

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tuzla City37%
×Draw27%
Stupčanica Olovo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.25
Stupčanica Olovo
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 57 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.48
Stupčanica Olovo
1.23

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.19
Stupčanica Olovo
1.02

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Stupčanica Olovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Stupčanica Olovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
65%
Tuzla City or Stupčanica Olovo
73%
Draw or Stupčanica Olovo
63%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
16%
Stupčanica Olovo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
71%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
36%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
13%
Stupčanica Olovo 1+ goals
70%
Stupčanica Olovo 2+ goals
34%
Stupčanica Olovo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
51%
Stupčanica Olovo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Stupčanica Olovo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + Stupčanica Olovo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stupčanica Olovo attack 1.23 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tuzla City scores more
37%
level
27%
Stupčanica Olovo scores more
35%

Tuzla City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
F. MehanovicPenalty
76'
M. Karahmetovic
Tuzla
Stupčanica
S. Petrović
Manager: S. Petrović
D. Zaimović
Manager: D. Zaimović

Match Recap: Tuzla City vs Stupčanica Olovo

Stupčanica Olovo beat Tuzla City 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 13, 2025.

Goals: F. Mehanovic (40' pen), M. Karahmetovic (76').

The match was played at Stadion BARE in Simin Han.