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Tuzla City vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — Premijer Liga 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
CANC
00:00
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
4/4/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 25Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tuzla City55%
×Draw24%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.70
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.95

Tuzla City creates 79% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.57
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.71

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.20
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.82

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
79%
Tuzla City or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
76%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
45%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
30%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
82%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
51%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
24%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
61%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
25%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
72%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.57 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.71 + Tuzla City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tuzla City scores more
55%
level
24%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
21%

Tuzla City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tuzla City vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — Match Preview

Tuzla City face Mladost Doboj Kakanj on April 4, 2020 in this Premijer Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tuzla City host Mladost Doboj Kakanj at Stadion Tušanj.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.