Tuzla City 1–0 Krupa na Vrbasu: Result & Stats

Tuzla City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Krupa na Vrbasu

8/8/2020

Premijer Liga · Round 2Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tuzla City56%

×Draw25%

Krupa na Vrbasu19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuzla CityExpected goals in this matchKrupa na Vrbasu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.83

Tuzla City

1.61

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.83

Tuzla City creates 94% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

0.47

1.20

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Tuzla City

1.57

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.47

allows per match

Tuzla City

1.20

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw

81%

Tuzla City or Krupa na Vrbasu

75%

Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu

44%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+

30%

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals

80%

Tuzla City 2+ goals

48%

Tuzla City 3+ goals

22%

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

56%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

20%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)

74%

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.57 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 0.47 + Tuzla City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tuzla City scores more

56%

level

25%

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

19%

Tuzla City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff