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Tuzla City vs Goražde — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Goražde
Goražde
3/15/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 17Stadion BARE

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tuzla City45%
×Draw27%
Goražde28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.41
Goražde
1.05

Tuzla City creates 34% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 82 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.48
Goražde
0.91

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.19
Goražde
1.34

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Goražde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
72%
Tuzla City or Goražde
73%
Draw or Goražde
55%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
22%
Goražde wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
76%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
41%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
17%
Goražde 1+ goals
65%
Goražde 2+ goals
28%
Goražde 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
62%
Goražde (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.48 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Goražde attack 0.91 + Tuzla City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tuzla City scores more
45%
level
27%
Goražde scores more
28%

Tuzla City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuzla City vs Goražde

Goražde beat Tuzla City 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion BARE in Simin Han.