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Tuzla City vs Borac Banja Luka — Premijer Liga 2019

Tuzla City
Tuzla City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
3/31/2023Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 24Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Tuzla City37%
×Draw27%
Borac Banja Luka36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuzla City
1.27
Borac Banja Luka
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 109 away

creates per match

Tuzla City
1.57
Borac Banja Luka
1.30

allows per match

Tuzla City
1.20
Borac Banja Luka
0.98

finishing

Tuzla City+0.00on par
Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuzla City ↓

Borac Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tuzla City or draw
64%
Tuzla City or Borac Banja Luka
73%
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
63%

Winning margin

Tuzla City wins by 2+
16%
Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tuzla City 1+ goals
72%
Tuzla City 2+ goals
36%
Tuzla City 3+ goals
14%
Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
71%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
36%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tuzla City (draw refunded)
51%
Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuzla City at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuzla City attack 1.57 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + Tuzla City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tuzla City scores more
37%
level
27%
Borac Banja Luka scores more
36%

Tuzla City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tuzla City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Tuzla City 2–2 Borac Banja Luka

Tuzla City and Borac Banja Luka drew 2-2 in Premijer Liga on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.