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TuWe vs Åland — Suomen Cup 2018

TuWe
TuWe
FT
1 – 5
Åland
Åland
3/20/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TuWe4%
×Draw7%
Åland89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuWe
1.00
Åland
4.42

Åland creates 342% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

TuWe
1.00
Åland
3.50

allows per match

TuWe
5.33
Åland
1.00

finishing

TuWe+0.00on par
Åland+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuWe ↓

Åland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–25%
0–38%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

TuWe or draw
11%
TuWe or Åland
93%
Draw or Åland
96%

Winning margin

TuWe wins by 2+
1%
Åland wins by 2+
76%

Team goals

TuWe 1+ goals
63%
TuWe 2+ goals
26%
TuWe 3+ goals
8%
Åland 1+ goals
99%
Åland 2+ goals
92%
Åland 3+ goals
78%

Draw no bet

TuWe (draw refunded)
4%
Åland (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuWe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

Åland away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuWe attack 1.00 + Åland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Åland attack 3.50 + TuWe defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

TuWe scores more
4%
level
7%
Åland scores more
89%

Åland at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Åland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: TuWe 1–5 Åland

Åland beat TuWe 5-1 in Suomen Cup on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Kupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi in Åbo.