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Tuv buganuud vs Ulaanbaatar City — Premier League 2020

Tuv buganuud
Tuv buganuud
CANC
08:00
Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
6/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tuv buganuud32%
×Draw19%
Ulaanbaatar City49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuv buganuud
2.04
Ulaanbaatar City
2.51

Ulaanbaatar City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 55 away

creates per match

Tuv buganuud
2.33
Ulaanbaatar City
2.31

allows per match

Tuv buganuud
2.71
Ulaanbaatar City
1.76

finishing

Tuv buganuud+0.00on par
Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuv buganuud ↓

Ulaanbaatar City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Tuv buganuud or draw
51%
Tuv buganuud or Ulaanbaatar City
81%
Draw or Ulaanbaatar City
68%

Winning margin

Tuv buganuud wins by 2+
17%
Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Tuv buganuud 1+ goals
87%
Tuv buganuud 2+ goals
60%
Tuv buganuud 3+ goals
33%
Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
92%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
71%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Tuv buganuud (draw refunded)
40%
Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuv buganuud at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Ulaanbaatar City away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuv buganuud attack 2.33 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.04

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.31 + Tuv buganuud defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tuv buganuud scores more
32%
level
19%
Ulaanbaatar City scores more
49%

Ulaanbaatar City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tuv buganuud face Ulaanbaatar City (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Tuv buganuud hosting Ulaanbaatar City. Match starts June 29, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tuv buganuud host Ulaanbaatar City at Football Centre MFF.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.