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Tuv buganuud vs Ulaanbaatar — Premier League 2020

Tuv buganuud
Tuv buganuud
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ulaanbaatar
Ulaanbaatar
10/13/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tuv buganuud20%
×Draw17%
Ulaanbaatar63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuv buganuud
1.71
Ulaanbaatar
3.00

Ulaanbaatar creates 75% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 62 away

creates per match

Tuv buganuud
2.33
Ulaanbaatar
3.29

allows per match

Tuv buganuud
2.71
Ulaanbaatar
1.08

finishing

Tuv buganuud+0.00on par
Ulaanbaatar+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuv buganuud ↓

Ulaanbaatar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Tuv buganuud or draw
37%
Tuv buganuud or Ulaanbaatar
83%
Draw or Ulaanbaatar
80%

Winning margin

Tuv buganuud wins by 2+
9%
Ulaanbaatar wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Tuv buganuud 1+ goals
82%
Tuv buganuud 2+ goals
51%
Tuv buganuud 3+ goals
24%
Ulaanbaatar 1+ goals
95%
Ulaanbaatar 2+ goals
79%
Ulaanbaatar 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Tuv buganuud (draw refunded)
25%
Ulaanbaatar (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuv buganuud at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Ulaanbaatar away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.08 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuv buganuud attack 2.33 + Ulaanbaatar defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ulaanbaatar attack 3.29 + Tuv buganuud defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tuv buganuud scores more
20%
level
17%
Ulaanbaatar scores more
63%

Ulaanbaatar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tuv buganuud 1–2 Ulaanbaatar

Ulaanbaatar beat Tuv buganuud 2-1 in Premier League on October 13, 2022.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.