Tuv buganuud 1–1 Lions: Result & Stats

Tuv buganuud

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lions

4/24/2022

Premier League · Round 6Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tuv buganuud54%

×Draw18%

Lions28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuv buganuudExpected goals in this matchLions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

2.19

Tuv buganuud

3.00

Lions

2.19

Tuv buganuud creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

2.33

creates per match

1.67

2.71

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Tuv buganuud

2.33

Lions

1.67

allows per match

Tuv buganuud

2.71

Lions

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuv buganuud+0.00on par

Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuv buganuud ↓

Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Tuv buganuud or draw

72%

Tuv buganuud or Lions

82%

Draw or Lions

46%

Winning margin

Tuv buganuud wins by 2+

35%

Lions wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tuv buganuud 1+ goals

95%

Tuv buganuud 2+ goals

79%

Tuv buganuud 3+ goals

56%

Lions 1+ goals

89%

Lions 2+ goals

64%

Lions 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Tuv buganuud (draw refunded)

66%

Lions (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuv buganuud at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Lions away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuv buganuud attack 2.33 + Lions defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.00

Lions attack 1.67 + Tuv buganuud defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tuv buganuud scores more

54%

level

18%

Lions scores more

28%

Tuv buganuud at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tuv buganuud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff