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Tuv buganuud vs Khangarid — Premier League 2020

Tuv buganuud
Tuv buganuud
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khangarid
Khangarid
4/10/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tuv buganuud34%
×Draw19%
Khangarid47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuv buganuud
2.09
Khangarid
2.48

Khangarid creates 19% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 81 away

creates per match

Tuv buganuud
2.33
Khangarid
2.26

allows per match

Tuv buganuud
2.71
Khangarid
1.85

finishing

Tuv buganuud+0.00on par
Khangarid+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuv buganuud ↓

Khangarid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Tuv buganuud or draw
53%
Tuv buganuud or Khangarid
81%
Draw or Khangarid
66%

Winning margin

Tuv buganuud wins by 2+
18%
Khangarid wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Tuv buganuud 1+ goals
88%
Tuv buganuud 2+ goals
62%
Tuv buganuud 3+ goals
34%
Khangarid 1+ goals
92%
Khangarid 2+ goals
70%
Khangarid 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Tuv buganuud (draw refunded)
42%
Khangarid (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuv buganuud at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Khangarid away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.85 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuv buganuud attack 2.33 + Khangarid defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.09

Khangarid attack 2.26 + Tuv buganuud defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tuv buganuud scores more
34%
level
19%
Khangarid scores more
47%

Khangarid at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khangarid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuv buganuud vs Khangarid

Tuv buganuud beat Khangarid 2-0 in Premier League on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.