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Tutin vs Vrelo Sport — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Tutin
Tutin
FT
2 – 0
Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
6/2/2024Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 30Stadion FK Tutin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tutin54%
×Draw26%
Vrelo Sport20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tutin
1.50
Vrelo Sport
0.81

Tutin creates 85% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tutin
1.28
Vrelo Sport
0.93

allows per match

Tutin
0.68
Vrelo Sport
1.73

finishing

Tutin+0.00on par
Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tutin ↓

Vrelo Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tutin or draw
80%
Tutin or Vrelo Sport
74%
Draw or Vrelo Sport
46%

Winning margin

Tutin wins by 2+
28%
Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tutin 1+ goals
78%
Tutin 2+ goals
44%
Tutin 3+ goals
19%
Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
56%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
19%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tutin (draw refunded)
73%
Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tutin at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tutin attack 1.28 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Tutin defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tutin scores more
54%
level
26%
Vrelo Sport scores more
20%

Tutin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tutin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tutin vs Vrelo Sport

Tutin beat Vrelo Sport 2-0 in Srpska Liga - West on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tutin in Tutin.