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Tutin vs Polet Ljubić — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Tutin
Tutin
FT
0 – 1
Polet Ljubić
Polet Ljubić
11/11/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 13Stadion FK Tutin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tutin50%
×Draw25%
Polet Ljubić25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tutin
1.60
Polet Ljubić
1.04

Tutin creates 54% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tutin
1.28
Polet Ljubić
1.40

allows per match

Tutin
0.68
Polet Ljubić
1.93

finishing

Tutin+0.00on par
Polet Ljubić+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tutin ↓

Polet Ljubić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tutin or draw
75%
Tutin or Polet Ljubić
75%
Draw or Polet Ljubić
50%

Winning margin

Tutin wins by 2+
26%
Polet Ljubić wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tutin 1+ goals
80%
Tutin 2+ goals
47%
Tutin 3+ goals
22%
Polet Ljubić 1+ goals
65%
Polet Ljubić 2+ goals
28%
Polet Ljubić 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tutin (draw refunded)
67%
Polet Ljubić (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tutin at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Polet Ljubić away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.93 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tutin attack 1.28 + Polet Ljubić defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.60

Polet Ljubić attack 1.40 + Tutin defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tutin scores more
50%
level
25%
Polet Ljubić scores more
25%

Tutin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tutin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Tutin 0–1 Polet Ljubić

Polet Ljubić beat Tutin 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Tutin in Tutin.