Tutin 1–1 Borac Cacak: Result & Stats

Tutin

FT

1 – 1

Borac Cacak

9/25/2022

Srpska Liga - West · West - 7Stadion FK Tutin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Tutin34%

×Draw28%

Borac Cacak38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TutinExpected goals in this matchBorac Cacak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.23

Tutin

1.13

Borac Cacak

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 54 away

1.28

creates per match

1.78

0.68

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Tutin

1.28

Borac Cacak

1.78

allows per match

Tutin

0.68

Borac Cacak

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tutin+0.00on par

Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tutin ↓

Borac Cacak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tutin or draw

62%

Tutin or Borac Cacak

72%

Draw or Borac Cacak

66%

Winning margin

Tutin wins by 2+

14%

Borac Cacak wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tutin 1+ goals

68%

Tutin 2+ goals

31%

Tutin 3+ goals

11%

Borac Cacak 1+ goals

71%

Borac Cacak 2+ goals

35%

Borac Cacak 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tutin (draw refunded)

47%

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tutin at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.68 · 57 matches

Borac Cacak away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tutin attack 1.28 + Borac Cacak defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Borac Cacak attack 1.78 + Tutin defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tutin scores more

34%

level

28%

Borac Cacak scores more

38%

Borac Cacak at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff