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Tuti vs Hay Al Arab — Sudani Premier League 2019

Tuti
Tuti
FT
4 – 0
Hay Al Arab
Hay Al Arab
8/5/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 26Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tuti33%
×Draw31%
Hay Al Arab36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuti
0.96
Hay Al Arab
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 76 away

creates per match

Tuti
0.79
Hay Al Arab
0.82

allows per match

Tuti
1.21
Hay Al Arab
1.12

finishing

Tuti+0.00on par
Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuti ↓

Hay Al Arab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tuti or draw
64%
Tuti or Hay Al Arab
69%
Draw or Hay Al Arab
67%

Winning margin

Tuti wins by 2+
12%
Hay Al Arab wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tuti 1+ goals
62%
Tuti 2+ goals
25%
Tuti 3+ goals
7%
Hay Al Arab 1+ goals
64%
Hay Al Arab 2+ goals
27%
Hay Al Arab 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tuti (draw refunded)
48%
Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuti at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Hay Al Arab away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuti attack 0.79 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Hay Al Arab attack 0.82 + Tuti defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tuti scores more
33%
level
31%
Hay Al Arab scores more
36%

Hay Al Arab at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hay Al Arab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuti vs Hay Al Arab

Tuti beat Hay Al Arab 4-0 in Sudani Premier League on August 5, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.