Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tuti vs Al Shorta — Sudani Premier League 2019

Tuti
Tuti
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
2/11/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2Port Sudan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tuti40%
×Draw28%
Al Shorta31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuti
1.23
Al Shorta
1.05

Tuti creates 17% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 83 away

creates per match

Tuti
0.79
Al Shorta
0.89

allows per match

Tuti
1.21
Al Shorta
1.67

finishing

Tuti+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuti ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tuti or draw
69%
Tuti or Al Shorta
72%
Draw or Al Shorta
60%

Winning margin

Tuti wins by 2+
18%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tuti 1+ goals
71%
Tuti 2+ goals
35%
Tuti 3+ goals
13%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
65%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
28%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tuti (draw refunded)
56%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuti at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuti attack 0.79 + Al Shorta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Shorta attack 0.89 + Tuti defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tuti scores more
40%
level
28%
Al Shorta scores more
31%

Tuti at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tuti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tuti vs Al Shorta

Tuti and Al Shorta drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 11, 2022.

The match was played at Port Sudan Stadium in Port Sudan.