Tuti 1–2 Al-Ahly Merowe: Result & Stats

Tuti

FT

1 – 2

Al-Ahly Merowe

2/18/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 4Port Sudan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tuti38%

×Draw31%

Al-Ahly Merowe32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TutiExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahly Merowe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.95

Tuti

1.07

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.95

Tuti creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 74 away

0.79

creates per match

0.70

1.21

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Tuti

0.79

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.70

allows per match

Tuti

1.21

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuti+0.00on par

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuti ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tuti or draw

68%

Tuti or Al-Ahly Merowe

69%

Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe

62%

Winning margin

Tuti wins by 2+

15%

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tuti 1+ goals

66%

Tuti 2+ goals

29%

Tuti 3+ goals

9%

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

61%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

25%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tuti (draw refunded)

55%

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuti at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuti attack 0.79 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.07

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Tuti defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tuti scores more

38%

level

31%

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

32%

Tuti at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tuti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff