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Tusker vs Zoo Kericho — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
CANC
12:00
Zoo Kericho
Zoo Kericho
6/13/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 19Kinoru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Tusker56%
×Draw25%
Zoo Kericho19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.61
Zoo Kericho
0.81

Tusker creates 99% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 52 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
Zoo Kericho
0.90

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
Zoo Kericho
1.94

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Zoo Kericho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
81%
Tusker or Zoo Kericho
75%
Draw or Zoo Kericho
44%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
30%
Zoo Kericho wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
80%
Tusker 2+ goals
48%
Tusker 3+ goals
22%
Zoo Kericho 1+ goals
56%
Zoo Kericho 2+ goals
19%
Zoo Kericho 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
75%
Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 145 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.61

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tusker scores more
56%
level
25%
Zoo Kericho scores more
19%

Tusker at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tusker face Zoo Kericho (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with Tusker hosting Zoo Kericho. Match starts June 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tusker host Zoo Kericho at Kinoru Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.