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Tusker vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
FT
0 – 0
Western Stima
Western Stima
12/6/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 2Utalii Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Tusker48%
×Draw28%
Western Stima24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.31
Western Stima
0.83

Tusker creates 58% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 52 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
Western Stima
0.94

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
Western Stima
1.33

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
76%
Tusker or Western Stima
72%
Draw or Western Stima
52%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
22%
Western Stima wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
73%
Tusker 2+ goals
38%
Tusker 3+ goals
14%
Western Stima 1+ goals
56%
Western Stima 2+ goals
20%
Western Stima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
67%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 144 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Western Stima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Western Stima attack 0.94 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tusker scores more
48%
level
28%
Western Stima scores more
24%

Tusker at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tusker vs Western Stima

Tusker and Western Stima drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Utalii Football Field in Nairobi.