Tusker vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
Tusker48%
Vihiga United FC23%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tusker creates 64% more chances
Season form · 144 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No63
- Yes37
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tusker ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 144 matches
Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tusker attack 1.29 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23
Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.75
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Tusker at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
GOR Mahia
AFC Leopards
Police
Nairobi United
Shabana
Homeboyz
KCBTusker
APS Bomet
Mara Sugar
Bandari
Murang'a SEAL
Ulinzi Stars
Mathare United
Posta Rangers FC
Kariobangi Sharks
Bidco United
Sofapaka
NaivasIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tusker host Vihiga United FC on Wednesday, 2 January 2019 at 12:00. The match is part of the FKF Premier League 2018/2019 season.
FKF Premier League: Tusker 2–0 Vihiga United FC
Tusker beat Vihiga United FC 2-0 in FKF Premier League on January 2, 2019.
The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium (Nairobi).