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Tusker vs Shabana — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shabana
Shabana
10/5/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 4Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Tusker44%
×Draw29%
Shabana27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.25
Shabana
0.90

Tusker creates 39% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 51 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
Shabana
1.08

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
Shabana
1.20

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Shabana+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Shabana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
73%
Tusker or Shabana
71%
Draw or Shabana
56%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
20%
Shabana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
71%
Tusker 2+ goals
36%
Tusker 3+ goals
13%
Shabana 1+ goals
59%
Shabana 2+ goals
23%
Shabana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
62%
Shabana (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 145 matches

Shabana away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Shabana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shabana attack 1.08 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tusker scores more
44%
level
29%
Shabana scores more
27%

Tusker at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tusker vs Shabana

Tusker and Shabana drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi.