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Tusker vs Police — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Police
Police
11/16/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 9Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Tusker36%
×Draw32%
Police32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
0.98
Police
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 145 home / 75 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
Police
1.07

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
Police
0.67

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
68%
Tusker or Police
68%
Draw or Police
64%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
14%
Police wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
62%
Tusker 2+ goals
26%
Tusker 3+ goals
8%
Police 1+ goals
59%
Police 2+ goals
23%
Police 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
53%
Police (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 145 matches

Police away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Police defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Police attack 1.07 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tusker scores more
36%
level
32%
Police scores more
32%

Tusker at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Tusker 1–2 Police

Police beat Tusker 2-1 in FKF Premier League on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi.