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Tusker vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
5/22/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 28Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Tusker47%
×Draw28%
Nzoia Sugar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.31
Nzoia Sugar
0.87

Tusker creates 51% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 111 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
Nzoia Sugar
1.02

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
Nzoia Sugar
1.32

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Nzoia Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
75%
Tusker or Nzoia Sugar
72%
Draw or Nzoia Sugar
53%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
22%
Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
73%
Tusker 2+ goals
38%
Tusker 3+ goals
14%
Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
58%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
22%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
65%
Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 145 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.02 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tusker scores more
47%
level
28%
Nzoia Sugar scores more
25%

Tusker at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tusker vs Nzoia Sugar

Tusker and Nzoia Sugar drew 2-2 in FKF Premier League on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.