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Tusker vs Nairobi United — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nairobi United
Nairobi United
K. Otiende 10'
12/17/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 14Ulinzi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tusker36%
×Draw31%
Nairobi United33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.02
Nairobi United
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 143 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
Nairobi United
1.18

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
Nairobi United
0.76

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Nairobi United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Nairobi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
67%
Tusker or Nairobi United
69%
Draw or Nairobi United
64%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
14%
Nairobi United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
64%
Tusker 2+ goals
27%
Tusker 3+ goals
8%
Nairobi United 1+ goals
61%
Nairobi United 2+ goals
25%
Nairobi United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
53%
Nairobi United (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 143 matches

Nairobi United away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Nairobi United defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Nairobi United attack 1.18 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tusker scores more
36%
level
31%
Nairobi United scores more
33%

Tusker at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
K. Otiende

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Tusker 0–1 Nairobi United

Nairobi United beat Tusker 1-0 in FKF Premier League on December 17, 2025.

Goals: K. Otiende (10').

The match was played at Ulinzi Sports Complex in Nairobi.