Tusker 2–0 Murang'a SEAL: Result & Stats

Tusker

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Murang'a SEAL

5/10/2025

FKF Premier League · Round 30Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Tusker47%

×Draw30%

Murang'a SEAL23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuskerExpected goals in this matchMurang'a SEAL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.77

Tusker

1.23

Murang'a SEAL

0.77

Tusker creates 60% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 50 away

1.29

creates per match

0.82

0.72

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Tusker

1.29

Murang'a SEAL

0.82

allows per match

Tusker

0.72

Murang'a SEAL

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par

Murang'a SEAL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Murang'a SEAL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tusker or draw

77%

Tusker or Murang'a SEAL

70%

Draw or Murang'a SEAL

53%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+

21%

Murang'a SEAL wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals

71%

Tusker 2+ goals

35%

Tusker 3+ goals

13%

Murang'a SEAL 1+ goals

54%

Murang'a SEAL 2+ goals

18%

Murang'a SEAL 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)

67%

Murang'a SEAL (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 145 matches

Murang'a SEAL away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Murang'a SEAL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Murang'a SEAL attack 0.82 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tusker scores more

47%

level

30%

Murang'a SEAL scores more

23%

Tusker at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff