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Tusker vs Mara Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mara Sugar
Mara Sugar
R. Ogam 48'
S. Shaphan 1'
M. Karani 6'
11/27/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 10Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tusker50%
×Draw28%
Mara Sugar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.38
Mara Sugar
0.84

Tusker creates 64% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 34 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
Mara Sugar
0.97

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
Mara Sugar
1.47

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Mara Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Mara Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
77%
Tusker or Mara Sugar
72%
Draw or Mara Sugar
50%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
24%
Mara Sugar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
75%
Tusker 2+ goals
40%
Tusker 3+ goals
16%
Mara Sugar 1+ goals
57%
Mara Sugar 2+ goals
21%
Mara Sugar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
68%
Mara Sugar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 143 matches

Mara Sugar away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Mara Sugar defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mara Sugar attack 0.97 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tusker scores more
50%
level
28%
Mara Sugar scores more
23%

Tusker at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
S. Shaphan
6'
M. Karani
48'
R. Ogam

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Tusker 2–1 Mara Sugar

Tusker beat Mara Sugar 2-1 in FKF Premier League on November 27, 2024.

Goals: S. Shaphan (1'), M. Karani (6'), R. Ogam (48').

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.