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Tusker vs Kenya Police — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kenya Police
Kenya Police
3/5/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 18Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tusker38%
×Draw30%
Kenya Police31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.09
Kenya Police
0.96

Tusker creates 14% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
Kenya Police
1.20

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
Kenya Police
0.90

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Kenya Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
69%
Tusker or Kenya Police
70%
Draw or Kenya Police
62%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
15%
Kenya Police wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
66%
Tusker 2+ goals
30%
Tusker 3+ goals
10%
Kenya Police 1+ goals
62%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
25%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
55%
Kenya Police (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 145 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Kenya Police defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.09

Kenya Police attack 1.20 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tusker scores more
38%
level
30%
Kenya Police scores more
31%

Tusker at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Tusker 1–1 Kenya Police

Tusker and Kenya Police drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.