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Tusker vs KCB — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
CANC
00:00
KCB
KCB
4/19/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 29Kinoru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Tusker39%
×Draw31%
KCB30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.08
KCB
0.91

Tusker creates 19% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 132 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
KCB
1.10

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
KCB
0.87

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
KCB+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

KCB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
70%
Tusker or KCB
69%
Draw or KCB
61%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
16%
KCB wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
66%
Tusker 2+ goals
29%
Tusker 3+ goals
10%
KCB 1+ goals
60%
KCB 2+ goals
23%
KCB 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
56%
KCB (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 143 matches

KCB away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.87 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + KCB defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

KCB attack 1.10 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tusker scores more
39%
level
31%
KCB scores more
30%

Tusker at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tusker host KCB

April 19, 2020: Tusker take on KCB in FKF Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tusker host KCB at Kinoru Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.