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KCB vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Tusker
Tusker
10/26/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 7SportPesa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

KCB33%
×Draw29%
Tusker38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.07
Tusker
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 147 away

creates per match

KCB
1.14
Tusker
1.34

allows per match

KCB
0.97
Tusker
1.00

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

KCB or draw
62%
KCB or Tusker
71%
Draw or Tusker
67%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
13%
Tusker wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
66%
KCB 2+ goals
29%
KCB 3+ goals
9%
Tusker 1+ goals
69%
Tusker 2+ goals
32%
Tusker 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
47%
Tusker (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 130 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.14 + Tusker defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Tusker attack 1.34 + KCB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

KCB scores more
33%
level
29%
Tusker scores more
38%

Tusker at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: KCB 3–2 Tusker

KCB beat Tusker 3-2 in FKF Premier League on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at SportPesa Arena in Murang'a.