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Tusker vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

Tusker
Tusker
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
T. Omole 45'
E. Kapaito 11'
5/10/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tusker37%
×Draw32%
Bidco United31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
0.98
Bidco United
0.86

Tusker creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tusker
0.84
Bidco United
0.77

allows per match

Tusker
0.95
Bidco United
1.13

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
69%
Tusker or Bidco United
68%
Draw or Bidco United
63%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
14%
Bidco United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
62%
Tusker 2+ goals
26%
Tusker 3+ goals
8%
Bidco United 1+ goals
58%
Bidco United 2+ goals
21%
Bidco United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
55%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 0.84 + Bidco United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Bidco United attack 0.77 + Tusker defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tusker scores more
37%
level
32%
Bidco United scores more
31%

Tusker at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
E. Kapaito
45'
T. Omole

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Tusker 2–0 Bidco United

Tusker beat Bidco United 2-0 in FKF Premier League on May 10, 2026.

Goals: E. Kapaito (11'), T. Omole (45').