Tusker 2–1 Bidco United: Result & Stats

Tusker

FT

2 – 1

Bidco United

H. Meja 33'

R. Aloro 23' (pen)

D. Orem 52'

8/22/2021

FKF Premier League · Round 31Utalii Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Tusker45%

×Draw30%

Bidco United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuskerExpected goals in this matchBidco United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.78

Tusker

1.17

Bidco United

0.78

Tusker creates 50% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 101 away

1.29

creates per match

0.85

0.72

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Tusker

1.29

Bidco United

0.85

allows per match

Tusker

0.72

Bidco United

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par

Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

Bidco United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tusker or draw

75%

Tusker or Bidco United

70%

Draw or Bidco United

55%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+

19%

Bidco United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals

69%

Tusker 2+ goals

33%

Tusker 3+ goals

11%

Bidco United 1+ goals

54%

Bidco United 2+ goals

18%

Bidco United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)

65%

Bidco United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 143 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bidco United attack 0.85 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tusker scores more

45%

level

30%

Bidco United scores more

25%

Tusker at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

R. AloroPenalty

33'

H. Meja

52'

D. Orem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff