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Tusker vs APS Bomet — FKF Premier League 2018

Tusker
Tusker
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
APS Bomet
APS Bomet
I. Simiyu 45+2'
E. Masembe 90+4' (pen)
5/31/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tusker39%
×Draw29%
APS Bomet33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tusker
1.18
APS Bomet
1.06

Tusker creates 11% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tusker
1.29
APS Bomet
1.41

allows per match

Tusker
0.72
APS Bomet
1.06

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par
APS Bomet+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

APS Bomet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tusker or draw
67%
Tusker or APS Bomet
71%
Draw or APS Bomet
61%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+
16%
APS Bomet wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals
69%
Tusker 2+ goals
33%
Tusker 3+ goals
12%
APS Bomet 1+ goals
65%
APS Bomet 2+ goals
29%
APS Bomet 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)
54%
APS Bomet (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 143 matches

APS Bomet away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + APS Bomet defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

APS Bomet attack 1.41 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tusker scores more
39%
level
29%
APS Bomet scores more
33%

Tusker at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
I. Simiyu
90+4'
E. MasembePenalty
90+9'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tusker vs APS Bomet

Tusker and APS Bomet drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on May 31, 2026.

Goals: I. Simiyu (45+2'), E. Masembe (90+4' pen).