Tusker 0–4 AFC Leopards: Result & Stats

Tusker

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

AFC Leopards

1/11/2026

FKF Premier League · Round 16Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Tusker41%

×Draw30%

AFC Leopards30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuskerExpected goals in this matchAFC Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.94

Tusker

1.16

AFC Leopards

0.94

Tusker creates 23% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 146 away

1.29

creates per match

1.17

0.72

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Tusker

1.29

AFC Leopards

1.17

allows per match

Tusker

0.72

AFC Leopards

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tusker+0.00on par

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tusker ↓

AFC Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tusker or draw

70%

Tusker or AFC Leopards

70%

Draw or AFC Leopards

59%

Winning margin

Tusker wins by 2+

17%

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tusker 1+ goals

69%

Tusker 2+ goals

32%

Tusker 3+ goals

11%

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

61%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

24%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tusker (draw refunded)

58%

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tusker at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.72 · 145 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tusker attack 1.29 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Tusker defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tusker scores more

41%

level

30%

AFC Leopards scores more

30%

Tusker at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff