TuS RW Koblenz 5–0 Pfeddersheim: Result & Stats

TuS RW Koblenz

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Pfeddersheim

5/11/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 36Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

TuS RW Koblenz57%

×Draw20%

Pfeddersheim23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS RW KoblenzExpected goals in this matchPfeddersheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.40

TuS RW Koblenz

2.29

Pfeddersheim

1.40

TuS RW Koblenz creates 64% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 45 away

2.17

creates per match

1.22

1.57

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

TuS RW Koblenz

2.17

Pfeddersheim

1.22

allows per match

TuS RW Koblenz

1.57

Pfeddersheim

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par

Pfeddersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS RW Koblenz ↓

Pfeddersheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

TuS RW Koblenz or draw

77%

TuS RW Koblenz or Pfeddersheim

80%

Draw or Pfeddersheim

43%

Winning margin

TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+

36%

Pfeddersheim wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals

90%

TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals

66%

TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals

40%

Pfeddersheim 1+ goals

75%

Pfeddersheim 2+ goals

41%

Pfeddersheim 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)

71%

Pfeddersheim (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS RW Koblenz at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Pfeddersheim away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS RW Koblenz attack 2.17 + Pfeddersheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.29

Pfeddersheim attack 1.22 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

TuS RW Koblenz scores more

57%

level

20%

Pfeddersheim scores more

23%

TuS RW Koblenz at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "TuS RW Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff