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TuS RW Koblenz vs Kaiserslautern II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS RW Koblenz
TuS RW Koblenz
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
3/8/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 26Sportanlage Oberwerth Nebenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

TuS RW Koblenz37%
×Draw21%
Kaiserslautern II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS RW Koblenz
1.89
Kaiserslautern II
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 79 away

creates per match

TuS RW Koblenz
2.17
Kaiserslautern II
2.51

allows per match

TuS RW Koblenz
1.57
Kaiserslautern II
1.61

finishing

TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par
Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS RW Koblenz ↓

Kaiserslautern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

TuS RW Koblenz or draw
58%
TuS RW Koblenz or Kaiserslautern II
79%
Draw or Kaiserslautern II
63%

Winning margin

TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+
19%
Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals
85%
TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals
56%
TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals
29%
Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
87%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
60%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)
46%
Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS RW Koblenz at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.61 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS RW Koblenz attack 2.17 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.51 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TuS RW Koblenz scores more
37%
level
21%
Kaiserslautern II scores more
42%

Kaiserslautern II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS RW Koblenz vs Kaiserslautern II

Kaiserslautern II beat TuS RW Koblenz 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Oberwerth Nebenplatz in Koblenz.