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TuS RW Koblenz vs Baumholder — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS RW Koblenz
TuS RW Koblenz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baumholder
Baumholder
10/21/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 18Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

TuS RW Koblenz55%
×Draw21%
Baumholder24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS RW Koblenz
2.14
Baumholder
1.36

TuS RW Koblenz creates 57% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

creates per match

TuS RW Koblenz
2.17
Baumholder
1.16

allows per match

TuS RW Koblenz
1.57
Baumholder
2.11

finishing

TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par
Baumholder+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS RW Koblenz ↓

Baumholder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

TuS RW Koblenz or draw
76%
TuS RW Koblenz or Baumholder
79%
Draw or Baumholder
45%

Winning margin

TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+
33%
Baumholder wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals
88%
TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals
63%
TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals
36%
Baumholder 1+ goals
74%
Baumholder 2+ goals
39%
Baumholder 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)
70%
Baumholder (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS RW Koblenz at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Baumholder away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS RW Koblenz attack 2.17 + Baumholder defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.14

Baumholder attack 1.16 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TuS RW Koblenz scores more
55%
level
21%
Baumholder scores more
24%

TuS RW Koblenz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TuS RW Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS RW Koblenz vs Baumholder

TuS RW Koblenz beat Baumholder 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.