TuS Koblenz 2–1 TuS RW Koblenz: Result & Stats

TuS Koblenz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

TuS RW Koblenz

D. Grgic 86'

I. Blagojevic 52'

A. Shehada 41'

4/12/2025

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 26Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

TuS Koblenz50%

×Draw23%

TuS RW Koblenz27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS KoblenzExpected goals in this matchTuS RW Koblenz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.25

TuS Koblenz

1.80

TuS RW Koblenz

1.25

TuS Koblenz creates 44% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 53 away

1.97

creates per match

1.53

0.97

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

TuS Koblenz

1.97

TuS RW Koblenz

1.53

allows per match

TuS Koblenz

0.97

TuS RW Koblenz

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

TuS RW Koblenz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw

73%

TuS Koblenz or TuS RW Koblenz

77%

Draw or TuS RW Koblenz

50%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+

28%

TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals

83%

TuS Koblenz 2+ goals

54%

TuS Koblenz 3+ goals

27%

TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals

71%

TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals

36%

TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)

65%

TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

TuS RW Koblenz away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.80

TuS RW Koblenz attack 1.53 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more

50%

level

23%

TuS RW Koblenz scores more

27%

TuS Koblenz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

A. Shehada

52'

I. Blagojevic

86'

D. Grgic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff