TuS Koblenz 1–2 Mechtersheim: Result & Stats

TuS Koblenz

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mechtersheim

3/15/2025

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

TuS Koblenz55%

×Draw22%

Mechtersheim23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS KoblenzExpected goals in this matchMechtersheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.18

TuS Koblenz

1.94

Mechtersheim

1.18

TuS Koblenz creates 64% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 62 away

1.97

creates per match

1.39

0.97

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

TuS Koblenz

1.97

Mechtersheim

1.39

allows per match

TuS Koblenz

0.97

Mechtersheim

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Mechtersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

Mechtersheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw

77%

TuS Koblenz or Mechtersheim

78%

Draw or Mechtersheim

45%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+

32%

Mechtersheim wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals

86%

TuS Koblenz 2+ goals

58%

TuS Koblenz 3+ goals

30%

Mechtersheim 1+ goals

69%

Mechtersheim 2+ goals

33%

Mechtersheim 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)

70%

Mechtersheim (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Mechtersheim away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + Mechtersheim defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.94

Mechtersheim attack 1.39 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more

55%

level

22%

Mechtersheim scores more

23%

TuS Koblenz at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff