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TuS Koblenz vs Arminia Ludwigshafen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Y. Yaman 75'
K. Zeghli 7'
B. Hommrich 65'
10/26/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

TuS Koblenz52%
×Draw21%
Arminia Ludwigshafen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Koblenz
2.06
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.42

TuS Koblenz creates 45% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 79 away

creates per match

TuS Koblenz
1.97
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.87

allows per match

TuS Koblenz
0.97
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.16

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par
Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw
74%
TuS Koblenz or Arminia Ludwigshafen
79%
Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen
48%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
31%
Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
87%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
61%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
34%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
76%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
41%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
66%
Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.06

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more
52%
level
21%
Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
26%

TuS Koblenz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
K. Zeghli
65'
B. Hommrich
75'
Y. Yaman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuS Koblenz 2 – 1 Arminia Ludwigshafen

TuS Koblenz beat Arminia Ludwigshafen 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 26, 2024.

Goals: K. Zeghli (7'), B. Hommrich (65'), Y. Yaman (75').

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.