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TuS Kirchberg vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Kirchberg
TuS Kirchberg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
11/13/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 16Kirchberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

TuS Kirchberg28%
×Draw20%
TuS Koblenz52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Kirchberg
1.61
TuS Koblenz
2.23

TuS Koblenz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 60 away

creates per match

TuS Kirchberg
1.90
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

TuS Kirchberg
2.60
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Kirchberg ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

TuS Kirchberg or draw
48%
TuS Kirchberg or TuS Koblenz
80%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
72%

Winning margin

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+
13%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals
80%
TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals
48%
TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals
22%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
89%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
65%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)
35%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Kirchberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.90 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + TuS Kirchberg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

TuS Kirchberg scores more
28%
level
20%
TuS Koblenz scores more
52%

TuS Koblenz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Kirchberg vs TuS Koblenz

TuS Koblenz beat TuS Kirchberg 4-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Kirchberg Kunstrasen in Hunsrück.