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TuS Kirchberg vs FV Engers 07 — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Kirchberg
TuS Kirchberg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
10/30/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Kirchberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

TuS Kirchberg31%
×Draw20%
FV Engers 0749%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Kirchberg
1.80
FV Engers 07
2.28

FV Engers 07 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 78 away

creates per match

TuS Kirchberg
1.90
FV Engers 07
1.96

allows per match

TuS Kirchberg
2.60
FV Engers 07
1.71

finishing

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par
FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Kirchberg ↓

FV Engers 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

TuS Kirchberg or draw
51%
TuS Kirchberg or FV Engers 07
80%
Draw or FV Engers 07
69%

Winning margin

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+
15%
FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals
83%
TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals
54%
TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals
27%
FV Engers 07 1+ goals
90%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
66%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)
39%
FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Kirchberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.71 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.90 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

FV Engers 07 attack 1.96 + TuS Kirchberg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TuS Kirchberg scores more
31%
level
20%
FV Engers 07 scores more
49%

FV Engers 07 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Kirchberg vs FV Engers 07

FV Engers 07 beat TuS Kirchberg 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Kirchberg Kunstrasen in Hunsrück.