TuS Kirchberg 0–2 Dudenhofen: Result & Stats

TuS Kirchberg

FT

0 – 2

Dudenhofen

4/2/2023

Oberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 4Kirchberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TuS Kirchberg13%

×Draw16%

Dudenhofen71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS KirchbergExpected goals in this matchDudenhofen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.58

TuS Kirchberg

1.00

Dudenhofen

2.58

Dudenhofen creates 158% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

2.17

3.00

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

TuS Kirchberg

1.33

Dudenhofen

2.17

allows per match

TuS Kirchberg

3.00

Dudenhofen

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par

Dudenhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Kirchberg ↓

Dudenhofen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

TuS Kirchberg or draw

29%

TuS Kirchberg or Dudenhofen

84%

Draw or Dudenhofen

87%

Winning margin

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+

4%

Dudenhofen wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals

63%

TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals

26%

TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals

8%

Dudenhofen 1+ goals

92%

Dudenhofen 2+ goals

72%

Dudenhofen 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)

15%

Dudenhofen (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Kirchberg at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Dudenhofen away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.33 + Dudenhofen defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Dudenhofen attack 2.17 + TuS Kirchberg defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

TuS Kirchberg scores more

13%

level

16%

Dudenhofen scores more

71%

Dudenhofen at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Dudenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff