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TuS Kirchberg vs Arminia Ludwigshafen — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

TuS Kirchberg
TuS Kirchberg
FT
2 – 2
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
3/18/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 2Kirchberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TuS Kirchberg24%
×Draw17%
Arminia Ludwigshafen59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Kirchberg
1.92
Arminia Ludwigshafen
3.00

Arminia Ludwigshafen creates 56% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

TuS Kirchberg
1.33
Arminia Ludwigshafen
3.00

allows per match

TuS Kirchberg
3.00
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.50

finishing

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par
Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Kirchberg ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

TuS Kirchberg or draw
41%
TuS Kirchberg or Arminia Ludwigshafen
83%
Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen
76%

Winning margin

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+
12%
Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals
85%
TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals
57%
TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals
30%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
95%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
79%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)
29%
Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Kirchberg at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.33 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 3.00 + TuS Kirchberg defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

TuS Kirchberg scores more
24%
level
17%
Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
59%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Kirchberg vs Arminia Ludwigshafen

TuS Kirchberg and Arminia Ludwigshafen drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Kirchberg Kunstrasen in Hunsrück.