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TuS Kirchberg vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Kirchberg
TuS Kirchberg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
11/27/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 18Kirchberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

TuS Kirchberg41%
×Draw21%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Kirchberg
2.02
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 43 away

creates per match

TuS Kirchberg
1.90
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.23

allows per match

TuS Kirchberg
2.60
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.14

finishing

TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par
Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Kirchberg ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

TuS Kirchberg or draw
62%
TuS Kirchberg or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
79%
Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
59%

Winning margin

TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+
23%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals
87%
TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals
60%
TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals
33%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
85%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
57%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)
52%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Kirchberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.90 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.02

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + TuS Kirchberg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

TuS Kirchberg scores more
41%
level
21%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
38%

TuS Kirchberg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TuS Kirchberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: TuS Kirchberg 3–1 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

TuS Kirchberg beat Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Kirchberg Kunstrasen in Hunsrück.