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TuS Heiligenkreuz vs Union RB Weinland Gamlit — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
CANC
17:00
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
4/5/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 20Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz46%
×Draw22%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.93
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.57

TuS Heiligenkreuz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 86 away

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.85
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
1.57

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.57
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
2.00

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par
Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Union RB Weinland Gamlit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw
68%
TuS Heiligenkreuz or Union RB Weinland Gamlit
78%
Draw or Union RB Weinland Gamlit
54%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
26%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
85%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
57%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
30%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals
79%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals
46%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
59%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.57 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
46%
level
22%
Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more
32%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: TuS Heiligenkreuz host Union RB Weinland Gamlit

April 5, 2024: TuS Heiligenkreuz take on Union RB Weinland Gamlit in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

TuS Heiligenkreuz host Union RB Weinland Gamlit at Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.