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TuS Heiligenkreuz vs Rottenmann — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
FT
2 – 1
Rottenmann
Rottenmann
6/3/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 29Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz52%
×Draw22%
Rottenmann27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.00
Rottenmann
1.38

TuS Heiligenkreuz creates 45% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 27 away

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.85
Rottenmann
1.19

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.57
Rottenmann
2.15

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par
Rottenmann+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Rottenmann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw
73%
TuS Heiligenkreuz or Rottenmann
78%
Draw or Rottenmann
48%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
30%
Rottenmann wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
86%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
59%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
32%
Rottenmann 1+ goals
75%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
40%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
66%
Rottenmann (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Rottenmann away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Rottenmann defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rottenmann attack 1.19 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
52%
level
22%
Rottenmann scores more
27%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: TuS Heiligenkreuz 2–1 Rottenmann

TuS Heiligenkreuz beat Rottenmann 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on June 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz in Heiligenkreuz am Waasen.