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TuS Heiligenkreuz vs Leoben — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
FT
1 – 1
Leoben
Leoben
9/14/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 8Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz49%
×Draw22%
Leoben30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.00
Leoben
1.52

TuS Heiligenkreuz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 41 away

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.85
Leoben
1.46

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.57
Leoben
2.15

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par
Leoben+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Leoben →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw
70%
TuS Heiligenkreuz or Leoben
78%
Draw or Leoben
51%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
28%
Leoben wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
86%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
59%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
32%
Leoben 1+ goals
78%
Leoben 2+ goals
45%
Leoben 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
62%
Leoben (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Leoben away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.15 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Leoben defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.00

Leoben attack 1.46 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
49%
level
22%
Leoben scores more
30%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: TuS Heiligenkreuz 1–1 Leoben

TuS Heiligenkreuz and Leoben drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz in Heiligenkreuz am Waasen.