TuS Heiligenkreuz 1–2 Judenburg: Result & Stats

TuS Heiligenkreuz

FT

1 – 2

Judenburg

6/2/2023

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 29Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz60%

×Draw20%

Judenburg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuS HeiligenkreuzExpected goals in this matchJudenburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.22

TuS Heiligenkreuz

2.23

Judenburg

1.22

TuS Heiligenkreuz creates 83% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

1.85

creates per match

0.87

1.57

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.85

Judenburg

0.87

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz

1.57

Judenburg

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Judenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Judenburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw

80%

TuS Heiligenkreuz or Judenburg

80%

Draw or Judenburg

40%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+

38%

Judenburg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals

89%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals

65%

TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals

38%

Judenburg 1+ goals

70%

Judenburg 2+ goals

34%

Judenburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)

75%

Judenburg (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Judenburg away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Judenburg defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Judenburg attack 0.87 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more

60%

level

20%

Judenburg scores more

20%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff