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TuS Heiligenkreuz vs Ilz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
CANC
17:00
Ilz
Ilz
5/8/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 24Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz43%
×Draw22%
Ilz34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.85
Ilz
1.63

TuS Heiligenkreuz creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 88 away

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.85
Ilz
1.69

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.57
Ilz
1.85

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par
Ilz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Ilz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw
66%
TuS Heiligenkreuz or Ilz
78%
Draw or Ilz
57%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
23%
Ilz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
84%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
55%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
28%
Ilz 1+ goals
80%
Ilz 2+ goals
48%
Ilz 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
56%
Ilz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Ilz away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Ilz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ilz attack 1.69 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
43%
level
22%
Ilz scores more
34%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: TuS Heiligenkreuz host Ilz

May 8, 2020: TuS Heiligenkreuz take on Ilz in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

TuS Heiligenkreuz host Ilz at Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.