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Ilz vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Ilz
Ilz
FT
1 – 3
TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
8/30/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 5Pfeifer Real Arena Ilz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Ilz48%
×Draw22%
TuS Heiligenkreuz30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilz
2.00
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.56

Ilz creates 28% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 72 away

creates per match

Ilz
1.91
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.49

allows per match

Ilz
1.63
TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.10

finishing

Ilz+0.00on par
TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilz ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ilz or draw
70%
Ilz or TuS Heiligenkreuz
78%
Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz
52%

Winning margin

Ilz wins by 2+
27%
TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ilz 1+ goals
86%
Ilz 2+ goals
59%
Ilz 3+ goals
32%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
79%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
46%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ilz (draw refunded)
61%
TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilz at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 88 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilz attack 1.91 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.00

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Ilz defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ilz scores more
48%
level
22%
TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
30%

Ilz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ilz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ilz vs TuS Heiligenkreuz

TuS Heiligenkreuz beat Ilz 3-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Pfeifer Real Arena Ilz in Ilz.