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TuS Heiligenkreuz vs Hitthaller St. Michael — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
FT
2 – 1
Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
10/18/2019Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 12Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz61%
×Draw19%
Hitthaller St. Michael20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.38
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.32

TuS Heiligenkreuz creates 80% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 30 away

creates per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.85
Hitthaller St. Michael
1.07

allows per match

TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.57
Hitthaller St. Michael
2.90

finishing

TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par
Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Heiligenkreuz ↓

Hitthaller St. Michael →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

TuS Heiligenkreuz or draw
80%
TuS Heiligenkreuz or Hitthaller St. Michael
81%
Draw or Hitthaller St. Michael
39%

Winning margin

TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
39%
Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
91%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
68%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
42%
Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
73%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
38%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
75%
Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Heiligenkreuz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

Hitthaller St. Michael away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.85 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.38

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.07 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
61%
level
19%
Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
20%

TuS Heiligenkreuz at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "TuS Heiligenkreuz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuS Heiligenkreuz vs Hitthaller St. Michael

TuS Heiligenkreuz beat Hitthaller St. Michael 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 18, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz TuS Heiligenkreuz in Heiligenkreuz am Waasen.